Demographics Now and Then

🇮🇷 🇮🇶 👶 Iranian & Iraqi births steadily converging because of the catastrophic fall in Iranian births.  Even at current level of ~2.8 fertility rate of Iraq is roughly double that of Iran.  Yemen also likely to have more births than Iran soon despite having less than half the population.

Laos is getting close to replacement & will likely be at or below it by 2030 along with Cambodia. Tiny East Timor will be the last one standing above replacement in Southeast Asia by 2030, & that is if they are very lucky. https://x.com/divideetimpera5/status/2076663191250092117

For the 1st time in American history, U.S. birth rate for women aged 40–44 (at 12.7 per 1,000) has officially surpassed the teen birth rate ages 15–19 which is 12.6 per 1,000. In contrast to the highest birthing cohort (women aged 30-34) which is 93.7 per 1,000. Women aged 45-49 had a birth rate of just 1.1 per 1,000.…

If China’s current sub 1.0 fertility rate becomes the baseline norm, six people will die for every single newborn in the country’s subsequent generations. China is effectively losing the sheer human mass required to sustain their domestic society & consumer economy… China has a very small window to turn this around. F…

According to OpenDataBot in first half of 2026 there’s been only 73,292 births in Ukraine,while the number of deaths so far number 259,853. This is a significant 10%+ fall in births over the same period of 2025. Remember in 2025 fertility rate in Ukraine was no higher than 1.2. While many sources say Ukrainian TFR in…